Sunday 23 February 2014

Takeaways From the Ouster in Kiev

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's removal from power has left both the country's old and new guard—and their supporters in Russia and the West—scrambling to gain their footing in the fast-changing political order. Here's a look at how the fall of the president affects the main players:

1 Mr. Yanukovych

The now-former president reportedly has been seeking a way out of the country, so far without success. He needs to find a way to protect his family and his wealthy business allies from retribution and possible prosecution. If he remains in the country, he's likely to face prosecution for the deaths of protesters over the last week, according to opposition leaders.

2 The (former) opposition

Having taken power far sooner than they expected even under Friday's European-brokered deal, Ukraine's fractious opposition needs to drop its traditional infighting and show it can govern, especially with the economy near collapse. At the same time, it may have to tell jubilant nationalist demonstrators they have to wait on initiatives such as restricting the use of Russian, which would be polarizing in the country's east.

3

The U.S.

The Obama administration views the tentative direction in Ukraine positively, despite the setback of recent violence. The administration wanted to see popular demands for greater engagement with Europe gain traction and had hoped for the rollback of antidemocratic laws and practices. They see the Yanukovych era as over, officials say. At the same time, administration officials have sought to put strict limits on U.S. involvement to avoid turning the situation into a standoff between the U.S. and Russia.

Since the recession officially ended in June 2009, government jobs held by women have fallen 3.7%. Jobs held in the government by men are down just 3%. Conversely, retail and leisure jobs— generally defined as low-wage—held by women have climbed 7.0%.

4 The EU

The European Union appeared to have lost Ukraine to Russia when former Mr. Yanukovich backed off from signing a trade-and-aid deal in November. Now, with a chance to win it back, it will have to put its money where its mouth is. European governments will insist that the new leaders in Kiev embark on tough economic reforms and aim to make sure the country doesn't break up. They will also try hard to keep Russia placated.Adjusting for seasonal variations helps economists interpret the data and compare months to one another. But the biggest outlier months are the hardest to adjust. Annual revisions to both the household and payroll surveys add to the doubt about the numbers.

5 Russia

Reeling from what seems like a major setback in Russian President Vladimir Putin's drive to build a Moscow-led bloc of fellow former-Soviet states, the Kremlin must weigh how much tension it is ready to create in relations with the West over Ukraine. For Moscow, there could still be a long game. A pro-Western government took over in Kiev in 2005 after similar street protests but lost at the ballot box four years later to a pro-Russian candidate—Mr. Yanukovych.


From WSJ News

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